Detecting vulnerability of humid tropical forests to multiple stressors
نویسندگان
چکیده
•An index to track vulnerability of global rainforests climate and land use•Four decades satellite data show widespread across the tropics•Response heat drying varies continents•Early warning from can identify regions for conservation restoration Rainforests are being lost at an alarming rate due deforestation degradation. As these forests lose their intactness diversity, resilience change declines they become more vulnerable droughts wildfires. Here, we built a spatially explicit tropical forest (TFVI) based on observations cover, carbon, water fluxes areas where losing disturbance changing toward irreversible state, “tipping point.” Our findings how tipping points may occur, either as gradual downhill decline ecosystem services or abrupt change. We present TFVI monitor provide early-warning signals that in need policies simultaneously promote increase mitigation. Humid play dominant role functioning Earth but under increasing threat changes use climate. How space time what level stress tolerate before facing point poorly understood. develop detect evaluate threats time. together with land-use have slowed recovery carbon cycling. Temporal autocorrelation, indicator this slow recovery, increases substantially above-ground biomass, gross primary production, evapotranspiration when reaches critical level. Forests Americas exhibit extensive stressors, while Africa, relative climate, Asia reveal fragmentation. systematically response multiple stressors undergoing transitions. (HTFs) (Figure S1) hyper-diverse regulating its by accounting than half life forms, one-third metabolic activity, storing vegetation carbon.1Malhi Y. Gardner T.A. Goldsmith G.R. Silman M.R. Zelazowski P. Tropical Anthropocene.Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 2014; 39: 125-159Crossref Scopus (260) Google Scholar,2Trumbore S. Brando Hartmann H. Forest health change.Science (80-. 2015; 349: 814-818Crossref PubMed (493) Scholar These benefit relatively warm temperature high rainfall equatorial support storage processing larger amounts via plant productivity respiration any other biome.3Lewis S.L. Edwards D.P. Galbraith D. Increasing human dominance forests.Science. 827-832Crossref (403) During dry season, trees source released atmosphere through (ET), creating locally thousand miles away maintain moist environment.4Wright J.S. Fu R. Worden J.R. Chakraborty Clinton N.E. Risi C. Sun Yin L. Rainforest-initiated wet season onset over southern Amazon.Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. A. 2017; 114: 8481-8486Crossref (121) processes been maintained regularly millennia intact structure diversity stable ecological functions.2Trumbore However, HTFs human-induced environmental stressors.5Zhou Tian Myneni R.B. Ciais Saatchi Liu Y.Y. Piao Chen Vermote E.F. Song et al.Widespread Congo rainforest greenness past decade.Nature. 508: 86-90Crossref Scholar, 6Song X.P. Hansen M.C. Stehman S.V. Potapov P.V. Tyukavina Townshend Global 1982 2016.Nature. 2018; 560: 639-643Crossref (723) 7Saatchi Asefi-Najafabady Malhi Aragão L.E.O.C. Anderson L.O. Nemani Persistent effects severe drought Amazonian canopy.Proc. 2013; 110: 565-570Crossref (266) Between 15% 20% cleared since early 1990s least additional 10% degraded.8Vancutsem Achard F. Pekel J.-F. Vieilledent G. Carboni Simonetti Gallego J. Nasi Long-term (1990–2019) monitoring cover humid tropics.Sci. Adv. 2021; 7: eabe1603Crossref (42) Widespread has reported regionally elevated droughts.9Yang S.S. Xu Yu Choi Phillips N. Kennedy Keller M. Knyazikhin Post-drought Amazon sink.Nat. Comm. 9: 3172Crossref (78) 10Aleixo I. Norris Hemerik Barbosa Prata E. Costa Poorter tree mortality driven functional traits.Nat. Clim. Chang. 2019; 384-388Crossref (90) 11Harris N.L. Gibbs D.A. Baccini Birdsey R.A. de Bruin Farina Fatoyinbo Herold Houghton al.Global maps twenty-first century fluxes.Nat. 11: 234-240Crossref Water energy exchanges suppressed significantly degradation atmosphere.12Longo Bowman K. Ferraz Moorcroft P.R. Morton D.C. Bonal Burban B. al.Impacts water, energy, cycling forests.J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosciences. 2020; 125https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JG005677Crossref (16) Remaining into increasingly smaller fragments substantial biodiversity loss.13Palma De Hoskins Gonzalez R.E. Börger Newbold T. Sanchez-Ortiz Ferrier Purvis Changes Biodiversity Intactness Index subtropical biomes, 2001–2012.bioRxiv. : 311688Google With projected escalating activities, will current capacity sink even photosynthesis rates, biodiversity, droughts, collapse fire.14Lewis earth system.Phil Trans. Soc. 2006; 361: 195-210Crossref (234) Over recent decades, grown pressures probability regime shifts.15Nobre C.A. Sampaio Borma L.S. Castilla-Rubio J.C. Silva Cardoso Land-use risks amazon novel sustainable development paradigm.Proc. 2016; 113: 10759-10768Crossref (337) Climate models predict form large-scale mortality16Malhi Huntingford Fisher Sitch McSweeney Meir Exploring likelihood mechanism climate-change-induced dieback rainforest.Proc. 2009; 106: 20610-20615Crossref (585) continuous transition drier fire-dominated savanna-like ecosystem,17Levine N.M. Zhang Longo O.L. Lewis Alvarez-Dávila Andrade A.C.S. Brienen R.J.W. Erwin T.L. al.Ecosystem heterogeneity determines change.Proc. 793-797Crossref (120) both large uncertainties future trajectories.18Huntingford Mercado L.M. Lomas Walker A.P. Jones C.D. Booth B.B.B. al.Simulated CO2-induced change.Nat. Geosci. 6: 268-273Crossref (277) There is ample evidence local studies modeling HTF eminent,18Huntingford 19Cox P.M. Pearson B.B. Friedlingstein Luke C.M. Sensitivity constrained dioxide variability.Nature. 494: 341-344Crossref (451) 20Phillips J.B. Lloyd López-González Monteagudo Peacock Quesada al.Drought sensitivity rainforest.Science. 323: 1344-1347Crossref (1178) understood.21Cole L.E.S. Bhagwat S.A. Willis K.J. Recovery after disturbance.Nat. Commun. 5: 1-7Crossref (149) This raises question whether one human- climate-induced low drive alternative state. address challenge two ways. First, used series data, records, responses four (1982–2018). define stressor condition, event, trend related variability exacerbate hazards ecosystems. provides first pan-tropical test degree which putative predictors (e.g., vapor pressure deficit, balance, cover) vary remain consistent magnitude trends. All spatial were gridded 0.1°×0.1° (120 km2) resolution (experimental procedures). For stress, include trends (T), deficit (VPD), balance (WB) (TC) deforestation, degradation, fire. responses, focused cycle included live biomass (AGB) (2000–2018),22Xu Yang al.Changes Terrestrial Live Biomass 21st Century.Sci. 7eabe9829https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe9829Crossref (24) production (GPP) (1982–2018), ET skin (land surface [LST]) (2000–2018) variables linking cycling.23Jin Dickinson Land climatology: benefitting strengths observations.Environ. Lett. 2010; 044004Crossref (225) Second, AR1 autoregressive quantify temporal autocorrelation stressors. (WB, VPD) TC model 1-month-lagged GPP, ET, LST 1-year-lagged AGB exhibiting amplified system susceptible to, unable cope with, adverse disturbance, such change, including extremes.24Turner B.L. Kasperson Matsone P.A. McCarthy J.J. Corell R.W. Christensene Eckley J.X. Luers Martello M.L. al.A framework analysis sustainability science.Proc. 2003; 100: 8074-8079Crossref (2598) Vulnerability be considered estimate inability stressors.25Folke Carpenter Scheffer Elmqvist Gunderson Holling C.S. Regime shifts, resilience, management.Annu. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 2004; 35: 557-581Crossref (2388) occurs starts modulating ability recover disturbance.26Williams L.R.R. Kapustka L.A. Ecosystem vulnerability: complex interface technical components.Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2000; 19: 1055-1058Google To evaluated between each monthly scales removing seasonal cycles Higher if it exposed important transitions.27Dakos V. Van Nes E.H. D’Odorico Robustness variance indicators slowing down.Ecology. 2012; 93: 264-271Crossref (184) Scholar,28Scheffer Bascompte Brock W.A. Brovkin S.R. Dakos Held Rietkerk Sugihara Early-warning transitions.Nature. 461: 53-59Crossref (2439) then additive regression assess relationship stressors.29Verbesselt Umlauf Hirota Holmgren Zeileis Remotely sensed forests.Nat. 1028-1031Crossref (97) Scholar,30Seddon Chausson Berry Girardin C.A.J. Smith Turner Understanding value limits nature-based solutions challenges.Philos. B Biol. 375https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0120Crossref (246) The coefficients sensitive and/or memory shows long-term variations tropics transition. land-cover (LCLUC) using burned area fire 2018 (Figures 1A 1B ). percent grid cells includes loss gain secondary afforestation benchmark that, 1980s, 340 Mha (106 hectares) experienced net (gain-loss) became (?390 Mha) 2000s (?420 Mha), dropped 2010s about 300 S2). exhibited uneven patterns globally time, agricultural expansion Americas, small-scale shifting cultivation Central combination agroforestry commodity-driven agriculture Asia.31Curtis P.G. Slay Harris Classifying drivers loss.Science. 1108-1111Crossref (700) was consistently higher average 2.5 year?1 1.2 1990s, 2.0 2000s, 1.6 2010s. In highest 0.6 1999 0.15 2000 2018. More recently (2000–2018), 7.3 year?1, comparable 7.65 clearing extracted Landsat-based (30-m resolution) products S3).32Hansen Moore Hancher Turubanova Thau Goetz S.J. Loveland T.R. al.High-resolution 21st-century 342: 850-853Crossref (5806) Wildfire impacts remained confined activities concentrated forest-savanna boundaries 1B). found annual (BA) pixels all 21 averaged real burns coarse (500 m) partial within pixel. Time BA disturbances African twice prevalent interannual fires continents S4). results suggest impact approximately 10–15 (not overlapped areas) procedures), causing reduced (>50% TC) 1,300 less 1,000 end further exacerbates forests. Trends air 1C) southeast northwest Amazon, West 0.4°C per decade. While strong increased temperature,33Smith M.N. Taylor T.C. van Haren Rosolem Restrepo-Coupe Adams Wu Oliveira R.C. da Araujo A.C. al.Empirical warmer world.Nat. Plants. 1225-1230Crossref warming also accompanied atmospheric represented VPD. find VPD (>0.01 hPa year?1) South America Africa 1D), anomalies southeastern Basins during years S5). potential turning 1.5 times (1982–1999), suggesting last decades.34Barkhordarian Behrangi Loikith P.C. Mechoso C.R. A systematic America.Sci. Rep. 1-12Crossref (57) Impacts detected WB difference supply precipitation 1E) heterogeneous divergent negative developing Basin south southwestern Amazon. contrast, availability northwestern alone not capture tropics. Stress episodic droughts.7Saatchi Scholar,35Marengo J.A. Williams E.R. Alves Soares W.R. Rodriguez Extreme Basin: floods.in: Interactions Biosphere, Atmosphere Human Use Basin. Springer, 2016: 55-76Crossref Scholar,36Asefi-Najafabady Response anomalies.Philos. Lond. 368: 20120306Crossref (65) driest quarter western headwaters emerging largest region S6). Rainfall Asian forests, showing Among focus associated 2018, GPP day-time links closely canopy temperature. Trend procedures) 2). significant eastern along Andean foothills, America, Insular 2A), persistent S3). gain, most importantly central northern mainland China. attributed LCLUC stress6Song conditions CO2 fertilization.37Hubau W. Affum-Baffoe Beeckman Cuní-Sanchez Daniels A.K. Ewango C.E.N. Fauset Mukinzi J.M. al.Asynchronous saturation forests.Nature. 579: 80-87Crossref (209) Increases China intensive forestry, expanded 20 years.38Tong X. Brandt Yue Rudbeck Jepsen Penuelas Wigneron J.-P. Xiao X.-P. Horion al.Forest management generates short term sequestration.Nat. 129Crossref (114) entire 2B) influenced frequent temperature, (see supplemental information) 2B). positive Asia, China, mostly years, favorable increase, radiation rainfall.38Tong Scholar,39Zhang Band L.E. No proportional terrestrial sequestration greening Earth.J. 124: 2540-2553Crossref (29) declining 2C), impacted Southern conversions Madagascar, appear hotspots ET. intensification hydrological cycle40Gloor Feldpausch Schöngart Guyot J.L. Espinoza Intensification decades.Geophys. 40: 1729-1733Crossref (229) S5) China) plantation systems. state (BI) varying 0 1 representing biological structural integrity 2E) our examine link BI. values (>0.7) ubiquitous Basin, Asia. there lower scores (<0.4) foothills Andes, coastlines concentrated. Wetlands fragmentation dense hydrographic networks settlements rivers 1A), (>0.7). clear contrast BI exists landscape highly fragmented remains facilitate direct comparison normalized distribution variable mean quantile transform preserved 3A 3B cumulative distributions separately cart wheel plots 3C 3D). emerge similar C), functions states 3B). experience exception fire, whereas respectively. Overall, rivals near 0.4–0.6 extent 0.4 Oceania, Africa. Their patterns, however, RF (GPP, LST) (RF > 0.6) S7A S7C), (AGB, BI) (RS S7B S7D). (AR1 model) diverse gradients three continental 4). means subsequent moments correlated indicating slower rates (slow down) system.29Verbesselt Tempor
منابع مشابه
Response of African humid tropical forests to recent rainfall anomalies.
During the last decade, strong negative rainfall anomalies resulting from increased sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic have caused extensive droughts in rainforests of western Amazonia, exerting persistent effects on the forest canopy. In contrast, there have been no significant impacts on rainforests of West and Central Africa during the same period, despite large-scale droughts ...
متن کاملDetecting anthropogenic disturbance in tropical forests.
Tropical forests are beleaguered by an array of threats driven by different scales of anthropogenic perturbations, which vary in the degree to which they can be detected by remote sensing. The extent of different patterns of cryptic disturbance often far exceeds the total area deforested, as shown by two recent studies on selective logging in Amazonia. Here, we discuss different forms of distur...
متن کاملChanges in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet.
The future of tropical forests has become one of the iconic issues in climate-change science. A number of studies that have explored this subject have tended to focus on the output from one or a few climate models, which work at low spatial resolution, whereas society and conservation-relevant assessment of potential impacts requires a finer scale. This study focuses on the role of climate on t...
متن کاملComment on "Determination of deforestation rates of the world's humid tropical forests".
A recently completed research program (TREES) employing the global imaging capabilities of Earth-observing satellites provides updated information on the status of the world's humid tropical forest cover. Between 1990 and 1997, 5.8 +/- 1.4 million hectares of humid tropical forest were lost each year, with a further 2.3 +/- 0.7 million hectares of forest visibly degraded. These figures indicate...
متن کاملTaxonomy and remote sensing of leaf mass per area (LMA) in humid tropical forests.
Leaf mass per area (LMA) is a trait of central importance to plant physiology and ecosystem function, but LMA patterns in the upper canopies of humid tropical forests have proved elusive due to tall species and high diversity. We collected top-of-canopy leaf samples from 2873 individuals in 57 sites spread across the Neotropics, Australasia, and Caribbean and Pacific Islands to quantify environ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: One earth
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2590-3322', '2590-3330']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.002